In the midway of the 2007-2013 Agricultural sector programming period, the new programming period starting from 2014 is already the subject of the debates. In order to be well prepared for the new programming period, it is necessary to start to work on strategy preparation beforehand.
The paper seeks to highlight the importance of forecasting preparing strategic management documents of agricultural sector, to explore the usage of orecasting methods in the previous strategic documents of agricultural sector and to propose presumptions to improve forecast quality and increase its use. During the investigation Lithuanian and foreign literature on the forecasting in the strategic management issues was reviewed, strategic documents of agricultural sector starting from 2000 were analysed and the use of forecasting for strategic documents preparation was assessed.
After the investigation carried out, it was identified, that systematic integrated quantitative and qualitative usage of the forecasting methods, could serve the creation of strategies, in particular useful could be the use of scenario analysis method, what helps to select the best objective strategic decisions for the future. Thus the basis for the future agricultural sector development strategy could be systematic, integrated, on scientific methods based agricultural sector
development prognosis and actual alternative scenarios of the agricultural sector development, based on various internal and external assumptions. For the agricultural policy makers and stakeholders it would facilitate rational and objective strategic decisions making and improve their quality.
Keyword(s): agricultural sector, forecasting, strategic documents.
Aistė Galnaitytė. Prognozavimas žemės ūkio sektoriaus strateginio valdymo dokumentuose // Vadybos mokslas ir studijos - kaimo verslų ir jų infrastruktūros plėtrai = Management theory and studies for rural business and infrastructure development / Research papers, 2010. nr. 22(3), p. 50-57., ISSN 1822-6760 (EBSCO, Business Source Complete, Central & Eastern European Academic Source).
Publication: Forecasting in the strategic management documents of agricultural sector (In Lithuanian language)