The task of this paper is to present prognoses of the grain market in 2020. Objectives for the following task are as follow: to analyze domestic use and foreign trade changes in Lithuania, EU average and world in 2007-2009 and to present grain balances components prognoses up to 2020 according to the world and EU prognoses; to compare and evaluate main grain prices in Lithuania EU average and world in 2007-2009 and, according to EU dominated prices of relevant product, to prognoses grain prices in Lithuania. The paper is prepared on the base of the Agriculture and rural development policies, economic and social research program of the 2009 study “Agriculture sector development prospects for 2020 in accordance with the changing internal and external factors”. Actual 20070-2009 data related to the main grain products (wheat, barley and rye) balance components (production, consumption, exports, imports, losses) was used for the paper. The main methods are as follow: traditional, heuristic, graphical and econometric partial equilibrium linear programming model AGMEMOD. Results of work: gathered background material prepared by the econometric model, which provides grain market forecasts.
Keyword(s): forecasting, grain market, support, prices, makroindicators.
Irena Kriščiukaitienė, Salomėja Andrikienė, Aistė Galnaitytė, Andrej Jedik. Grūdų rinkos prognozės iki 2020 metų // Vadybos mokslas ir studijos - kaimo verslų ir jų infrastruktūros plėtrai = Management theory and studies for rural business and infrastructure development / Lietuvos žemės ūkio universitetas. Ekonomikos ir vadybos fakultetas. Akademija, 2010, nr. 23 (4), p. 74-84, ISSN 1822-6760 (EBSCO, Business Source Complete, Central & Eastern European Academic Source).
Publication: Grain market forecast up to the year 2020 (In Lithuanian language)