The purpose of this paper is to present prognoses of the livestock sector in 2020. Objectives for the following task are as follow: to analyze and present the key internal and external factors affecting the livestock sector development, to evaluate the current ongoing agricultural income support policies and the EU single market price, and their trends, determine the reasons for the decreasing livestock sector in Lithuania and submit proposals for improvement situation. The paper is prepared on the base of the Agriculture and rural development policies, economic and social research program of the 2009 study “Agriculture sector development prospects for 2020 in accordance with the changing internal and external factors”. Actual 2000-2009 data related to the main livestock products (milk, beef, pork and poultry balance components (production, consumption, exports, imports, losses) was used for the paper. The main methods are as follow: traditional, heuristic, graphical and econometric partial equilibrium linear programming model AGMEMOD. Results of work: gathered background material prepared by the econometric model, which provides assistance livestock sector forecasts.
Keyword(s): forecasting, livestock, makroindicators, prices, sector, support.
Irena Kriščiukaitienė, Aistė Galnaitytė, Salomėja Andrikienė, Andrej Jedik. Gyvulininkystės sektoriaus prognozės iki 2020 metų // Vadybos mokslas ir studijos - kaimo verslų ir jų infrastruktūros plėtrai = Management theory and studies for rural business and infrastructure development / Research papers, 2010. nr. 22(3), p. 76-86., ISSN 1822-6760. (EBSCO, Business Source Complete, Central & Eastern European Academic Source).
Publication: Livestock sector forecast up to the year 2020 (In Lithuanian language)