Agricultural production depends on the changing weather conditions, diseases and pests that lead to price volatility. However, recent price volatility has become extremely high and problematic for farmers and state regulatory institutions. In EU countries, including Lithuania, still little attention is paid to price stabilization. Now viable food production, with a focus on agricultural income, agricultural productivity and price stability, is becoming a target for 2014-2020 of the common agricultural policy. The aim of this article is to evaluate the price volatility of Lithuanian crop products. The scientific literature overview was made in order to choose a method for analysis. A quantitative analysis using statistical and econometric tools is essential for price volatility risk evaluation. Price, yield and revenue risks were estimated using the coefficient of variation, and the variance decomposition procedure was applied to rate sources of revenue risk. The analysis was based on the statistical data set. Synthesis approach leads to price valuation scoring of crop products. Price volatility of crop products in Lithuania is in line with comparable EU ratios and is the main source of revenue volatility risk. Price volatility risk of potatoes and rape is lower than that of other crop products.
Key words: coefficient of variation, crop products, price volatility, risk assessment, risk factor, variance decomposition.
Kozlovskaja, A. Kainų kaitos kaip rizikos veiksnio vertinimas Lietuvos augalininkystėje. Iš: Žemės ūkio mokslai., Vol. 20, no. 3 (2013) p. 211-221. ISSN: 1392-0200. [Central & Eastern European Academic Source nuo 2007 (EBSCO sąrašas) CAB Abstracts nuo 2002, 3; (paieška) visas tekstas nuo 2009 (sąrašas)].
