The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of of changing climate on cereal crop - spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). For this purpose, the most popular computer model DSSAT v4.0.2.0 was used for simulation of cereal crop yield. The DSSAT model has been used in many countries in many different climate conditions. The results of the study showed that temperature may increase by 2 to 6.3°C. Also, the regime of precipitation will change - it will increase in winter and decrease in summer. According to these results, we chose the following scenarios for spring barley simulating: the air temperature increases by 1, 2, 3 or 4°C and rainfall will increase or decrease by 15, 30, 45 mm. For the simulation of winter wheat yield, the same increase of temperature and the rainfall increase or decrease by 30 and 60 mm during vegetation season were chosen.
The results of our study showed that if the temperature will increase and the amount of rainfall decrease, it will have a negative influence on the yield of spring barley and less negative on winter wheat. The increase of temperature will reduce the cereal crop vegetation period.
Key words: spring barley, winter wheat, climate change, grain yield, simulation.
Povilaitis V.; Lazauskas, S.; Kriščiukaitienė, I. Javų derlingumo prognozavimas pagal tikėtinus klimato kaitos scenarijus // Žemės ūkio mokslai, 2009. T. 16. Nr. 3-4. p. 224-229, ISSN 1392-0200 (EBSCO, Central & Eastern European Academic Source, CAB Abstracts).
