A new United Nations sustainable development Agenda underlines the relevance of Organic farming development. In the same line the Government of the Republic of Lithuania seeks to create economically efficient and competitive agriculture, based on low environmental impact farming, to develop organic farming and high quality certified agricultural and food production, conserve natural resources. Transition to the sustainable agricultural development faces the main difficulty, which is formulated as a scientific problem: how to reconcile the economic and political interests? This research is carried out by the purpose to offer alternative possibilities for organic farming development. The research was carried out using mathematical programming model and scenario analysis. Model is formulated as a linear mathematical programming optimization model, consisting of objective function, constraints, expressed as inequalities and fulfilling non-negative values conditions. The model includes existing and results provide the maximum gross value added ensuring crop production structure, taking in to account farming practices applied in Lithuania: conventional, organic, organic in conversion and integrated. The analysis of three scenarios has shown that the majority of compensatory payments and prices of organic production (2013) are insufficient to increase organic crop area to the extent of 10 percent of total agricultural land in Lithuania by 2020: only by one third (31 percent) higher organic production prices, lead to reached 10.5 percent of organic crop area from the total agricultural land. The research results provide scientifically based knowledge to the policy makers about the impact of the policy measure “Organic farming” on the development of organic farming.
JEL Codes: C61, Q15, Q18.
Article in: English
Received: 2016-09-29
Published on-line: 2016-09-29
Keyword(s): impact assessment, mathematical programming, organic farming.
Galnaitytė, A.; Kriščiukaitienė, I. 2016. Simulation of organic farming development, In Management theory and studies for rural business and infrastructure development = Vadybos mokslas ir studijos - kaimo verslų ir jų infrastruktūros plėtrai 38(3):219-229. DOI: 10.15544/mts.2016.17. (ISSN 1822-6760 (print) / ISSN 2345-0355 (online)). [EBSCO, Business Source Complete, Ulrich’s, DOAJ, OAJI, IndexCopernicus, ERIH PLUS and AcademicKeys.com.].